Took a couple months of since there really wasn't big time noteworthy news after Team USA coasted to the gold medal in the World Championships. Yes, there were the Carmelo trade rumors but nothing ever seemed substantial enough to me to actually write about. And if I myself was overwhelmed with the amount of predictions, Heat coverage, and preseason rankings, I knew no one would want to read more about it here.
I generally hate 'expert predictions,' but I'll make a few of my own 'bold predictions' and avoid the obvious.
Bold Prediction #1 - Kevin Durant will NOT win the MVP.
He may very well win the scoring title again but I honestly think the MVP is still LeBron's to lose. Would you vote for Durant basically putting up the exact same stats as last year - there's no way he scores more than 30 a game this year now that the Thunder won't sneak up on anyone - or LeBron who slaps up a 25, 12 and 8 for the season for a 64-win Heat team? With or without Wade and Bosh, if LeBron dominates and ups his rebounding and assist numbers (shouldn't be hard on this team) to near triple double levels how will he not be the Most Valuable Player in the league? Sorry, KD, not your turn just yet. You've mastered scoring the ball but you need to find other ways to impact the game and make the guys around you better before taking the MVP from LBJ.
Bold Prediction #2 - The Lakers will NOT runaway with the Western Conference this year.
I love the Lakers in the West for obvious reasons and to three-peat in Phil Jackson's last season, buuuuuut they are slowly but surely transforming into the Celtics: still playing at a championship level and NO ONE will want to see them in the playoffs but the regular season is going to be used to limit starters' minutes and work in their new bench players, Steve Blake and Matt Barnes. The triangle offense can literally take years to master, so they'll need to make sure Blake and Barnes are ready for the playoffs. And obviously, there's no need to run Kobe, Derek Fisher and Andrew Bynum through a wall in the regular season just to flame out in the playoffs. I predict a #3 seed for the Lakers
Bold Prediction #3 - Carmelo won't be traded until after the season.
I really hope this doesn't come true and that the Nuggets buckle and deal him to my Knicks by the trade deadline in February but I just don't see it happening. With George Karl back on the sidelines and Carmelo leading the way - he's too proud of a player to sulk and 'Vince Carter' his way out of town - the Nuggets should be in thick of the playoff race in the West. Name eight teams that are significantly better than the Nuggets out West? I just don't see. You're telling me they are going to trade their star player in the middle of a playoff race for cap relief, draft picks and young talent? Again, I just don't see it. Especially in a league where playoff gate revenues make such a huge difference in the bottom line, there's no way they could make the move. Plus, this extra time will give the Knicks more time to deal for another team's first round draft choice in an upcoming draft that they can then include in their own Anthony deal. The Nuggets stay competitive this season, get more for dealing Melo, and Melo gets dealt to his preferred destination - oh and I get to watch one my favorite players ever in person on a nightly basis... everybody wins.
Bold Prediction #4 - The Bucks will be an 'elite' team in the Eastern Conference.
While I don't think they'll break the Heat and Magic duo for a top two seed, I'm putting the Bucks in at #3, ahead of the Bulls and Celtics. While they won't necessarily sneak up on anyone, they play in a system and a style that is tough for other teams to adjust too. Not to mention, Brandon Jennings and Andrew Bogut will have another year playing together. Underrated signing in the crazy Summer of 2010? Corey Maggette to the Bucks to provide a scoring punch. I do love the Bulls but without Boozer early in the season I think they'll struggle a bit, just enough to let the Bucks pass them in the standings. Also, I don't think the Bucks are just this year's version of the Hawks from the past few seasons, talented, not in the top three, and a clear step below the other teams. They may not crack the top two in the standings in the regular season and compete at the same level as the Heat and Magic, but I think the Celtics will have it on cruise control for the first four-five months of the season like they did last year. They essentially replaced Rasheed Wallace's laziness with Shaq's laziness and obviously they are all a year older. Ironically, I still think the Celtics will make it to the Conference Finals and I'll hate it every step of the way, but at least for the regular season the Bucks will be in the top three.
Lastly, I wish I had a more Bold Prediction for the Conference Finals but I'm going with Miami over Boston and the LA Lakers over Dallas, with the Lakers taking out the Heat in the Finals.
The Celtics go in as a 5-seed but have one last playoff run in them and with Shaq (in shape, sort of, by then) and Jermaine O'Neal it'll be hard for other teams to match up with them in a long series. For some reason I like the Mavs to replace the 09-10 Suns as the 'team that was supposed to compete that ends up making a serious run in the playoffs.' I even have them losing to the Lakers just like the Suns last season.
In the Finals it'll come down to Finals experience, bench strength and coaching. Wade does have one Finals MVP and LeBron has been to the Finals (swept by the Spurs), but I don't know how the Heat will match up with Bynum and Pau Gasol with only Chris Bosh. I also don't fully believe in the Heat bench just yet. I think they'll be ok enough in the regular season and eventually Mike Miller will come back from injury and take his starting spot back, but I think the Lakers new pieces put them over the top. As for the last point, coaching, Phil Jackson versus Erik Spoelstra is a no contest win for Jackson in the Finals as far as I can see. And if they go the entire season could you imagine Phil getting to the Finals and his team not winning him his 12th Championship, and fourth career three-peat? Kobe won't let that happen.
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