Saturday, January 8, 2011

Addressing the Melo Rumors

I finally have enough to time to really kick out another long post. Apologies for the delay but between the holidays, watching and attending games, and bowl season, I've been glued to the TV for the past three weeks or so. Time to take a Friday night in and catch up on all the Carmelo Anthony rumors that have surfaces as of late.

Things have been pretty quiet until this week with Melo. And I have to stay I'm really going to be devastated if he agrees to an extension and ends up with the Nets. In case you missed them, here are the details behind the last two deals to be reported. They all really suck if you ask me, and not just because they mean Melo ends up in Jersey/Brooklyn instead of MSG, but because the third team being included isn't really getting anything significant for participating.

According to ESPN, there was a potential deal with Cleveland joining the mix as the third cog to help facilitate the Denver-New Jersey swap. Here's the ESPN Trade Machine breakdown with details below also.

Nets receive: Carmelo Anthony, Al Harrington, and the Cavaliers' trade exception they received from the sign and trade of LeBron James this summer

Nuggets receive: Derrick Favors, Devin Harris and three first round draft picks

Cavs receive: Troy Murphy's $12 million expiring contract with about $8 million still owed, and one or two first round draft picks

There were some sticking points that kept the trade from coming to fruition, but I'd rather focus on the assets involved in the deal.

First some background. In the original LeBron sign and trade Cleveland received two first round picks, two second round picks and the massive $14.5 million trade exception. I'll explain briefly without getting too in depth and boring you with all the rules behind a trade exception. A trade exception is like a credit that a team has one year to use in another trade to acquire a player so that it doesn't have to send matching salaries back to the team its trading with.

In essence by making this trade, the total worth of LeBron for Cleveland would be the two first rounders and two second rounders in the original deal with Miami, and then Troy Murphy's expiring $8 million contract, and another one or two first rounders. In total, 3-4 first round picks, 2 second round picks, and $8 million off their salary cap. There's no better way in the NBA to rebuild than in the draft, and there's certainly a premium on first round draft picks (second rounders don't really matter). So in using their trade exception to help send Melo to the Nets, the Cavs essentially receive one or two additional first rounders. I could understand if it was 100% two first round picks, but if it was really just one I think this deal is pretty crazy for Cleveland. The haul from the original deal with Miami was pretty decent for the Cavs, but I think they can do much more in terms of player acquisition with that large of a trade exception. With Cleveland looking to totally rebuild and no untouchables on the roster, I think they could use this trade exception in combination with other assets to maximize its value. It just seems like Cleveland is making the deal to get another draft pick which it can get in any other trade down the line anyhow.

The second trade that was just reported tonight involves the Pistons. I researched as much as I could but these were all the details I could get. Obviously, this can't be the whole picture because the Nets are taking way too much money in this scenario according to my trade machine work.

Nets receive: Carmelo Anthony, Chauncey Billups, and Richard Hamilton (more on this in a minute)

Nuggets receive: Derrick Favors, Devin Harris, two first round picks

Pistons receive: Troy's Murphy's expiring contract and Johan Petro (for salary matching purposes)

Yes, Hamilton has one of the worst contracts in the league for a team trying to rebuild such as the Pistons. But there are A LOT of teams in desperate need of a veteran two guard (see: Dallas, Chicago, to name two) that would be willing to take on that contract to try and win a title in the next few years. According to the reports, this deal is still being worked through and I can understand why. The Pistons can't be happy to unload Hamilton for an expiring deal, a back up center and some sort of draft compensation (assumed). It would also require the Nets to move more pieces in the $7 million range, which would then further require movement for the other teams. I'd be very surprised if this one went through.

On a side note, the trio of players the Nets would receive in this deal is exactly the same core the Pistons could've built around starting in 2003 if they would've just drafted Carmelo instead of Darko Milicic.

In the end, of course I'm ridiculously biased when it comes to Melo coming to the Knicks. Even if the teams above do come to some sort of agreement no deal will be finalized until Melo agrees to sign an extension with the Nets, which all sources indicate he isn't willing to do. If an agreement can be put in place, then Nets' owners Mikhail Prokhorov and Jay-z will have a chance to wooo Melo on the merits of coming to Jersey for a couple years before heading to Brooklyn. Hopefully, it doesn't even get to that point and Melo continues to say he'll on sign an extension with the Knicks.

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